Quantifying combined effects of mutually dependent uncertain resources in power grid

摘要

Improvement of stochastic prediction for uncertain power generation and power demand to quantify the effect on power grid.In order to improve this probabilistic prediction, the method includes fitting the peripheral distribution to data of uncertain power generation and power demand by power grid and power demand nodes.These power generation and power demand nodes provide corresponding uncertain power generation and power demand based on renewable energy sources.The method further includes determining the correlation structure between the power generation and power demand nodes by converting the data from the peripheral distribution to the second distribution and applying the multivariate time series to the converted data.The method further includes simulating a multivariate stochastic prediction using an improved correlation structure.Diagram