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Reliability Analysis Using the Method of Multiplicative Dimensional Reduction

机译:乘维数约简方法的可靠性分析

摘要

Traditional engineering analyses and designs are based on deterministic input variables, and variability seen in the real world are often ignored to simplify the work. Formal reliability analyses are generally avoided by engineers due to large computational costs associated with the traditional methods, such as simulations. Analysis done by engineers in this age of advanced technology are done using finite element analysis which further increase the computational cost of analyzing a reliability problem . Using reliability methods such as Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) with a finite element analysis requires thousands of trials to be done. This ultimately is not feasible for a complex problem which takes long computational time. Multiplicative Dimensional Reduction Method (MDRM) is a tool which can be used to calculate the statistical parameters of the response of a function with a large reduction in computational efforts. This method has not been applied to uncertainty analysis, geomechanics and fire resistant design problems to determine if this method is indeed worth using over traditional reliability methods (MCS). The Cubature method is another tool which can be used to calculate the statistical moments of a response. This method will be compared to MCS and MDRM to determine its effectiveness.The research objectives in this thesis are therefore 1) to determine if the code developed to use MDRM provides accurate results, 2) to compare the results of MDRM and Cubature to MCS to see how accurate the results of MDRM and Cubature are based on equation based problems, 3) to determine the feasibility of using MDRM with uncertainty analysis problems (where epistemic and aleatory variables are defined), 4) to determine the feasibility of solving a MDRM reliability analysis for fire resistant design problems and 5) to determine the feasibility and computational efficiency of using MDRM for geomechanics problems which are both equation based and finite element analysis.To perform the first objective a problem from Zhang & Pandey (2013) was redone using the code that was developed to make sure the results matched. The second objective was performed by solving steam generator tube failure problem and a time to leak of a pipe problem. The third objective was performed by solving the time to leak of a pipe problem again but this time designating one variable as epistemic and another as aleatory and comparing results between MDRM and MCS. To perform the fourth objective a performance based approach is outlined on how to calculate fire resistant design of a protected and unprotected beam. The results from MDRM and MCS are compared. The fifth and final objective is performed by first showing a step by step method on how to apply MDRM while solving a uni-dimensional consolidation example (settlement of foundation). Lastly two finite element analysis problems are solved to show the application of MDRM with the combination of a finite element analysis. The first problem is of vertical drains and the second problem is of a concrete infinite beam on an elastic foundation. These problems are done using MDRM and MCS and the results and computational effort are compared.
机译:传统的工程分析和设计基于确定性的输入变量,而在现实世界中看到的可变性通常被忽略以简化工作。由于与诸如仿真之类的传统方法相关的大量计算成本,工程师通常避免进行形式上的可靠性分析。在当今先进技术时代,工程师进行的分析是使用有限元分析进行的,这进一步增加了分析可靠性问题的计算成本。使用诸如蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)之类的可靠性方法进行有限元分析需要进行数千次试验。对于需要较长计算时间的复杂问题,这最终是不可行的。乘法降维方法(MDRM)是一种工具,可用于计算函数响应的统计参数,而计算工作量却大大减少。该方法尚未应用于不确定性分析,岩土力学和耐火设计问题,无法确定该方法是否确实值得使用,而不是传统的可靠性方法(MCS)。 Cubature方法是可用于计算响应的统计矩的另一种工具。将该方法与MCS和MDRM进行比较,以确定其有效性。因此,本文的研究目标是1)确定使用MDRM开发的代码是否提供准确的结果,2)将MDRM和Cubature与MCS的结果进行比较,了解基于方程式问题的MDRM和Cubature结果的准确性如何; 3)确定将MDRM用于不确定性分析问题(定义了认知变量和偶然变量)的可行性; 4)确定解决MDRM可靠性的可行性5)确定使用MDRM进行基于方程和有限元分析的地质力学问题的可行性和计算效率。为了实现第一个目标,使用了重做的方法重做了Zhang&Pandey(2013)的问题为确保结果匹配而开发的代码。通过解决蒸汽发生器管故障问题和管道泄漏时间来实现第二个目的。通过再次解决管道问题的泄漏时间来实现第三个目标,但是这次将一个变量指定为认知变量,将另一个变量指定为偶然变量,并比较MDRM和MCS的结果。为了实现第四个目标,概述了一种基于性能的方法,该方法基于如何计算受保护和不受保护的梁的耐火设计。比较了MDRM和MCS的结果。第五个也是最后一个目标是通过逐步展示如何在解决一维合并示例(基础沉降)时应用MDRM的方法来执行的。最后,通过结合有限元分析解决了两个有限元分析问题,以展示MDRM的应用。第一个问题是垂直排水,第二个问题是弹性基础上的混凝土无限大梁。这些问题是使用MDRM和MCS完成的,并对结果和计算量进行了比较。

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  • 作者

    Kang Gurparam;

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  • 年度 2017
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  • 正文语种 en
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