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Essays on estimating and calibrating the effects of macroeconomic policy over the business cycle

机译:关于估算和校准宏观经济政策对商业周期影响的论文

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摘要

This thesis consists of three chapters on post-reform Chinese business cycles and alternative methods for solving non-linear rational expectations models. Using quarterly data for the period 1980-2009, Chapter 1 examines the effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks on aggregate fluctuations in China. It further decomposes demand shocks into money supply, money demand and fiscal shocks as in the IS-LM-PC model by applying both long- and short-run restrictions in the context of the structural VAR proposed by Galí (1992). The results show that the estimated impulse responses, in terms of the supply and the three demand shocks, match well with the predictions of the theory. However, as the forecast error variance decompositions show, supply shocks are the main source of fluctuations, accounting for about 89% of output variations in the short-run. Given the nature of this transition economy, this may indicate that there are still institutional obstacles due to incomplete economic reform which prevents the market mechanism from working fully. Despite the overall dominance of supply shocks, the historical decomposition of the five cycles in output between 1983 and 2009 detects important roles played by various demand shocks in some sub-periods. The above results are robust to alternative choices of data for money and interest rate. In Chapter 2, an RBC model with utility generating government consumption and productive public capital is calibrated to annual Chinese data for the post-reform period 1978-2006. The main findings are: (i) the model generates a reasonable overall account of the business cycles in the Chinese economy; (ii) TFP shocks mainly contribute to the good fit of the model, whilst the two fiscal policy shocks help to further improve the model's performance; (iii) our results are robust to alternative calibrations such as high and low capital shares, weights of components in utility and constant return to scale aggregate production function in public capital; and (iv) the shock to the ratio of government consumption to output delivers a dominant negative wealth effect, whilst the shock to the ratio of government investment to output can generate significant positive wealth effects in both the short- and long-run. The third chapter solves the benchmark New Keynesian model using the log-linearization method, second order approximation and the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA). The results show that the three solution methods display varying degrees of quantitative differences in simulated population moments, distributions, policy functions and impulse response functions. In particular, the generated price dispersions are significantly different across solution methods. The accuracy evaluations in terms of Judd's criteria and Marcet's statistical test show that the PEA performs better than the other two methods, particularly when solving the price-adjustment equation. This result is robust to a number of alternative calibrations.
机译:本文由三章组成,内容涉及改革后的中国商业周期以及解决非线性理性期望模型的替代方法。第1章使用1980-2009年的季度数据,考察了总需求和供给冲击对中国总波动的影响。如IS-LM-PC模型一样,它通过在Galí(1992)提出的结构性VAR中应用长期和短期限制,将需求冲击分解为货币供应,货币需求和财政冲击。结果表明,在供应和三个需求冲击方面,估计的冲激响应与理论的预测非常吻合。但是,正如预测误差方差分解所显示的那样,供应冲击是波动的主要来源,在短期内约占产出变化的89%。考虑到这种转轨经济的性质,这可能表明由于经济改革不彻底而仍然存在体制障碍,阻碍了市场机制的充分运作。尽管供应冲击总体上占主导地位,但从1983年至2009年五个产出周期的历史分解发现,在某些子时期中,各种需求冲击都发挥了重要作用。以上结果对于货币和利率数据的替代选择是可靠的。在第2章中,将RBC模型的效用产生了政府消费和生产性公共资本,并根据1978年至2006年改革后的年度中国数据进行了校准。主要发现是:(i)该模型对中国经济中的商业周期产生了合理的总体解释; (ii)全要素生产率的冲击主要有助于模型的良好拟合,而两次财政政策冲击则有助于进一步改善模型的绩效; (iii)我们的结果对替代性校准是可靠的,例如高和低资本份额,公用事业部门的权重以及公共资本中规模生产函数的固定收益率不变; (iv)对政府消费与产出之比的冲击带来了显性的负财富效应,而对政府投资与产出之比的冲击在短期和长期都可能产生显着的正财富效应。第三章使用对数线性化方法,二阶近似和参数化期望算法(PEA)求解基准新凯恩斯模型。结果表明,三种求解方法在模拟的人口矩,分布,策略函数和冲激响应函数中都表现出不同程度的数量差异。特别是,所产生的价格差异在解决方案方法之间存在显着差异。根据Judd准则和Marcet统计检验进行的准确性评估表明,PEA的性能优于其他两种方法,尤其是在求解价格调整方程时。该结果对于许多替代校准都是可靠的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Huang Jilei;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2011
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 English
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