Perspectives on the Future of the Caucasus after the Second Chechnya Conflict. Papers from a Brainstorming Conference held at CEPS 27-28 January 2000. CEPS Working Document No. 148, July 2000

摘要

The problems surrounding the Chechen conflict are indeed many and difficult to tackle. This paper aims at unveiling some of the mysteries covering the issue of so-called “Islamic fundamentalism” in Chechnya. A comparison of the native Sufi branch of Islam and the imported Wahhaby ideology is made, in order to discover the contradictions and the conflicts that the spreading of the latter inflicted in the Chechen society. Furthermore, the paper investigates the main challenges President Aslan Maskhadov was facing at the beginning of his mandate, and the way he managed to cope with them. The paper does not attempt to cover all the aspects of the Chechen problem; nevertheless, a quick enumeration of other factors influencing the developments in Chechnya in the past three years is made. Individual papers include: A short introduction to the Chechen problem, by Alexandru Liono; Georgia and Abkhazia: proposals for a constitutional model, by Viacheslaw Chirikba; The Nagorno-Karabakh Question: an update, by Sergiu Celac; It's not about ancient hatreds, it's about current policies: Islam and stability in the Caucasus, by Brenda Shaffer; A regional security system for the Caucasus, by Bruno Coppieters; Economic survival strategies in North Caucasus, by Alexandru Liono; The Caspian dilemma: prosperity or conflict?, by Thomas Waelde, Sergei Vinogradov, and Armando Zamora; Caspian hydrocarbons, the politicisation of regional pipelines, and the destabilisation of the Caucasus, by Terry Adams; Prospects of a Stability Pact for the Caucasus: some preliminary speculations, by Sergiu Celac; Approaches to the stabilisation of the Caucasus, by Michael Emerson.