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Rumors and Runs in Opaque Markets: Evidence from the Panic of 1907

机译:不透明市场的谣言和运行:来自1907年恐慌的证据

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摘要

Using a new daily dataset for all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange between 1905 and 1910, we study the impact of information asymmetry during the liquidity freeze and market run of October 1907 - one of the most severe financial crises of the 20th century. We estimate that the market run drove up spreads from 0.5% to 3% during the peak of the crisis and, using a spread decomposition, we identify information risk as the largest component of illiquidity. Information costs rose most in the mining sector - the origin of the stock corner and a sector with among the worst track records of corporate governance and accounting. We find other hallmarks of information-based illiquidity: trading volume dropped and price impact rose. Despite short-term cash infusions into the market, the market remained relatively illiquid for several months following the peak of the panic. Notably, market illiquidity risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns. Thus, our findings demonstrate how opaque systems allow idiosyncratic rumors to spread and amplify into a long-lasting, market-wide crisis.
机译:我们使用1905年至1910年在纽约证券交易所交易的所有股票的每日数据集,研究了信息不对称在1907年10月流动性冻结和市场运行期间的影响-20世纪最严重的金融危机之一。我们估计,在危机的高峰期,市场运行使价差从0.5%上升到3%,并且通过价差分解,我们确定信息风险是流动性不足的最大组成部分。矿业部门的信息成本上涨最多-股指的起源以及公司治理和会计业绩最差的部门。我们发现基于信息的流动性不足的其他特征:交易量下降,价格影响上升。尽管短期向市场注入了现金,但在恐慌达到顶峰后的几个月中,市场仍然相对缺乏流动性。值得注意的是,市场非流动性风险是在股票收益的横截面中定价的。因此,我们的发现表明,不透明的系统如何使特质谣言散布和扩大为长期的,遍及整个市场的危机。

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