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Memory parameter estimation in the presence of level shifts and deterministic trends

机译:存在水平变化和确定性趋势时的存储器参数估计

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摘要

We propose estimators of the memory parameter of a time series that are robust to a wide variety of random level shift processes, deterministic level shifts and deterministic time trends. The estimators are simple trimmed versions of the popular log-periodogram regression estimator that employ certain sample size-dependent and, in some cases, data-dependent trimmings which discard low-frequency components. We also show that a previously developed trimmed local Whittle estimator is robust to the same forms of data contamination. Regardless of whether the underlying long/shortmemory process is contaminated by level shifts or deterministic trends, the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal with the same limiting variance as their standard untrimmed counterparts. Simulations show that the trimmed estimators perform their intended purpose quite well, substantially decreasing both finite sample bias and root mean-squared error in the presence of these contaminating components. Furthermore, we assess the tradeoffs involved with their use when such components are not present but the underlying process exhibits strong short-memory dynamics or is contaminated by noise. To balance the potential finite sample biases involved in estimating the memory parameter, we recommend a particular adaptive version of the trimmed log-periodogram estimator that performs well in a wide variety of circumstances. We apply the estimators to stock market volatility data to find that various time series typically thought to be long-memory processes actually appear to be short or very weak long-memory processes contaminated by level shifts or deterministic trends.
机译:我们提出了一个时间序列的内存参数的估计量,该估计量对于各种各样的随机电平转换过程,确定性电平转换和确定性时间趋势具有鲁棒性。估算器是流行的对数周期回归估算器的简单修整版,采用了某些依赖于样本大小的调整,在某些情况下,采用了依赖数据的修整,从而舍弃了低频分量。我们还表明,以前开发的经过修剪的局部Whittle估计量对于相同形式的数据污染具有鲁棒性。不管底层的长/短存储过程是否受到水平移动或确定趋势的污染,估计量都是一致的且渐近正态的,其极限方差与标准的未修剪对应物相同。仿真表明,经过修剪的估算器可以很好地实现其预期目的,在存在这些污染成分的情况下,大大降低了有限采样偏差和均方根误差。此外,当不存在此类组件但基础过程显示出强烈的短时动态性或被噪声污染时,我们评估了它们的使用所涉及的权衡。为了平衡估计内存参数所涉及的潜在有限样本偏差,我们建议使用修整对数周期估计量的特定自适应版本,该版本在多种情况下均能很好地发挥作用。我们将估算器应用于股票市场的波动性数据,发现通常被认为是长内存过程的各种时间序列实际上似乎是短的或非常弱的长内存过程,受水平移动或确定性趋势的污染。

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