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Inter-Temporal Savings, Current Account Dynamics and Asymmetric Shocks in a Heterogeneous European Monetary Union

机译:非均质欧洲货币联盟的跨期储蓄,经常账户动态和不对称冲击

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摘要

In the current debate on the reasons and implications of the Greek and Irish euro crisis, the intra-European current account imbalances have gained rising attention. Whereas Greece and Ireland struggle for austerity in private and public spending, Germany is urged to reduce its current account surplus by increasing wages to forestall a new build-up of unsustainable intra-E(M)U indebtedness. We analyse the emergence of intra-European imbalances since the year 1990 based on the theory of optimum currency areas. We show that the asymmetric shock of the German unification can be seen not only as the origin of the 1992/93 crisis of the European Monetary System, but also for the rising intra-European current account imbalances since the euro introduction and thereby the current European debt crisis. Based on this finding we argue that an increase of German spending to reduce its current account surplus is not only in the interest of German taxpayers to contain financial risk, but would also impose austerity on the rest of Europe. The resulting new wave of crisis could trigger a new round of monetary expansion in the EMU.
机译:在关于希腊和爱尔兰欧元危机的原因和影响的当前辩论中,欧洲内部经常账户失衡问题日益引起人们的关注。鉴于希腊和爱尔兰为节省私人和公共支出的紧缩而作斗争,但敦促德国通过增加工资来减少其经常账户盈余,以防止新的不可持续的E(M)U内债务积累。我们根据最佳货币区理论分析了1990年以来欧洲内部失衡的出现。我们表明,德国统一的不对称冲击不仅可以看作是1992/93年欧洲货币体系危机的根源,而且还可以看作是自引入欧元以来欧洲内部经常账户失衡加剧的结果,从而也可以看作当前欧洲债务危机。根据这一发现,我们认为增加德国支出以减少其经常账户盈余不仅符合德国纳税人控制金融风险的利益,而且还会使欧洲其他国家紧缩。由此产生的新一波危机可能触发欧洲货币联盟的新一轮货币扩张。

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