Monitoring and modelling volcanoes with assessment of their hazards by means of remote sensing and analogue modelling

摘要

Many active volcanoes in developing countries are poorly-known and not monitored. This thesis investigates low cost solutions to map the topography, to identify hazards and to document the eruptions at volcanoes with satellite data. Using a combination of remote sensing techniques and analogue modelling, this thesis also contributes to the understanding of volcanic processes such as the controls upon the 3D shape of sub-volcanic intrusive systems, upon the location of eruption outbreaks, upon the variations in eruption intensity through time and upon the transition between contrasted eruptive styles at a single volcano. After reviewing previous applications of low cost remote sensing in volcanology, the accuracy of two topographic datasets derived from contrasted remote sensing data (ASTER and SRTM) is assessed for volcanic terrains. Oldoinyo Lengai, a natrocarbonatite stratovolcano in Tanzania, is used as an illustrative example of poorly-known volcanoes whose hazards need to be assessed and whose eruptive activity has to be monitored. Satellite images enable mapping, constraining volumes and characterizing surface features of three flank collapses and their associated deposits. An existing numerical model is applied to constrain the emplacement dynamics and the velocity of one of those debris avalanche flows. An algorithm is then presented to retrieve daily information about eruptive activity and its variation over an 8-year period using nighttime MODIS satellite data. Analysis of this time series enable to highlight the control of Earth tides on the timing of high intensity eruptions. The same algorithm, combined with field data and petrologic analyses, is used to document a voluminous lava flow eruption that occurred at Oldoinyo Lengai at the end of March 2006, providing insights into the structure of the shallow plumbing system of the volcano. Satellite data are finally combined with laboratory experiments simulating magma propagation in the Earth crust with sand and syrup or gelatin and water, to provide a better understanding of the control exerted by volcanic edifice load upon magma ascent. These experiments also enable to explain the links between magma ascent, volcano load, sub-volcanic intrusions, volcano surface deformation and location of volcanic vents at the base of large volcanoes.