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Austrian Business Cycle Theory: examination of theory and evidence

机译:奥地利经济周期理论:理论和证据的考察

摘要

The purpose of this study is to examine the Austrian Business Cycle theory and the state of empirical evidence for it.In the theoretical part of the study, the Austrian theory of the business cycle based on the neo-Austrian diagrammatical synthesis was compared to New Keynesian short-run IS-LM and medium-run AS-AD models by studying policy responses. The policy responses to an in-crease in saving rate and increase in government deficit spending were similar. The policy response to monetary expansion was different between the theories. In New Keynesian theo-ry, monetary expansion can be used as a stabilization instrument. In Austrian theory, it causes an unsustainable investment that is the cause of the business cycle.The result of literature study on the previous empirical studies on Austrian business cycle theory was that there has not been a hypothesis that could be used to statistically test distinc-tively the Austrian business cycle theory. Currently there is no credible empirical evidence for the theory.In the empirical part of the thesis, the relationship between consumption, investment and monetary policy was studied using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Spread between short and long term interest rates was used as a proxy for the monetary policy. The model was estimated using U.S. data from 1963 to 2014. The impulse-response functions of the VECM model indicated that a monetary policy shock causes an economic stimulus that peaks after 20 quarters for consumption and after 16 quarters for investment. The results of the empirical study are consistent with both Austrian and New Keynesian theory.
机译:本研究的目的是检验奥地利经济周期理论及其经验证据的状态。在研究的理论部分,将基于新奥地利图解综合的奥地利经济周期理论与新凯恩斯主义进行了比较。通过研究政策响应,实现短期IS-LM和中期AS-AD模型。储蓄率提高和政府赤字支出增加的政策反应是相似的。在理论之间,对货币扩张的政策反应是不同的。在新凯恩斯主义理论中,货币扩张可以用作稳定工具。在奥地利理论中,它导致了不可持续的投资,这是商业周期的原因。以往奥地利商业周期理论的实证研究的文献研究结果是,没有可用于统计检验差异的假设。奥地利商业周期理论。目前,该理论还没有可靠的经验证据。在本文的实证部分,使用矢量误差校正模型(VECM)研究了消费,投资和货币政策之间的关系。短期和长期利率之间的利差被用作货币政策的代理。该模型是根据1963年至2014年美国的数据估算的。VECM模型的冲激响应函数表明,货币政策冲击会导致经济刺激,在消费的20个季度和投资的16个季度之后达到峰值。实证研究的结果与奥地利和新凯恩斯理论都一致。

著录项

  • 作者

    Merinen Jukka;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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