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Les aides américaines et européennes au coton : impacts sur le marché international et conséquences pour l'économie malienne

机译:美国和欧洲对棉花的援助:对国际市场的影响以及对马里经济的影响

摘要

World cotton prices have been characterized by a persistent decline since 1995. For developing countries producing cotton, this decline is due to the subsidies granted by the United States and the European Union to their cotton producers. As consequence, developing countries expect large commercial gains and substantial economic development from the removal of these support policies. Thus, this thesis aims to analyze the effect of the United States subsidies on the cotton market and their consequences on the Malian economy, one of the main cotton producers in Africa. First by means of two econometric models, we highlight the significant negative impact of the subsidies on world cotton price. Secondly, through a dynamic partial equilibrium model based on a detailed analysis of the American and European supports and which takes into account stocks, risk on the supply side and competition from synthetic fibers, we show that the removal of all subsidies leads to a positive impact on the world price between 4 and 17 %. While limited both in terms of growth and income improvement, the consequences of the removal of the subsidies on the Malian economy should be positive. Indeed, all the sectors of the economy but that of cereals should benefit from the domino effects of the cotton sector. So, the Government, the national cotton company and the producers which are the three main actors of the sector should expect an improvement of their situation. However, the main message of the thesis regarding the Malian economy is that the removal of the subsidies would not be the panacea given the difficulties faced by the cotton sector. Other issues such as slow productivity growth and the exchange rate appreciation (the euro / dollar parity) are also important for countries of the Franc Zone area, and particularly for Mali.
机译:自1995年以来,世界棉花价格一直持续下跌。对于生产棉花的发展中国家来说,这种下降的原因是美国和欧洲联盟向其棉花生产者提供了补贴。结果,发展中国家期望通过取消这些支持政策而获得巨大的商业收益和巨大的经济发展。因此,本文旨在分析美国补贴对棉花市场的影响及其对非洲主要棉花生产国之一马里经济的影响。首先,通过两个计量经济学模型,我们强调了补贴对世界棉花价格的重大负面影响。其次,通过基于对美国和欧洲支持的详细分析的动态局部均衡模型,该模型考虑了库存,供应方面的风险以及合成纤维的竞争,我们表明取消所有补贴会产生积极影响。世界价格的4%至17%之间。虽然在增长和收入改善方面都受到限制,但取消补贴对马里经济的影响应该是积极的。的确,除谷物外,所有经济部门都应受益于棉花部门的多米诺骨牌效应。因此,政府,国家棉花公司和生产者是该部门的三个主要参与者,应该期望他们的状况得到改善。但是,有关马里经济的论文的主要信息是,鉴于棉花部门面临的困难,取消补贴将不是万能药。生产率增长缓慢和汇率升值(欧元/美元平价)等其他问题对法郎地区地区的国家也很重要,特别是对于马里。

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    Traore Fousseini;

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  • 年度 2010
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  • 正文语种 fr
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