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The Greater Fools Theory And The Bubbles In Chinese Stock Market: A Behavioral Approach

机译:大傻瓜理论与中国股市泡沫:一种行为学方法

摘要

The Chinese Stock Market encountered its largest bubble from early 2006 to late 2007, and then crashed to the ground in mid 2008. On contrary to the bubbles in developed countries, the sky-rocketing phenomenon of the Chinese stock index in a very short period could not be fully explained by the rational bubble theory. In this paper, I examine both theoretically and empirically the "Greater Fools Theory", in the scope of irrational bubble theory. The result suggests that the Greater Fools Theory should be credited for this bubble in China. The theory part of this thesis presents an intuitive mathematical model to show the consistency of Greater Fools Theory to agents' behavior in reality. The empirical part of this paper adopts a traditional factorpricing model, the APT model, to show the explanation power of greater fools proxies. i
机译:从2006年初到2007年底,中国股票市场经历了最大的泡沫,然后在2008年中崩溃。与发达国家的泡沫相反,中国股票指数在很短的时间内飞涨的现象可能理性泡沫理论无法完全解释。在本文中,我在非理性泡沫理论的范围内从理论上和经验上都研究了“大傻瓜理论”。结果表明,应该将大傻瓜理论归因于中国的这一泡沫。本文的理论部分提出了一个直观的数学模型,以证明大傻瓜理论与现实中的行为者的一致性。本文的实证部分采用传统的因素定价模型APT模型,以显示大傻瓜代理的解释能力。一世

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    Sun Lin;

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  • 年度 2011
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