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An empirical analysis of the money demand function in India

机译:印度货币需求函数的实证分析

摘要

This paper empirically analyzes India’s money demand function during the period of 1980 to 2007 using monthly data and the period of 1976 to 2007 using annual data. Cointegration test results indicated that when money supply is represented by M1 and M2, a cointegrating vector is detected among real money balances, interest rates, and output. In contrast, it was found thatwhen money supply is represented by M3, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship in the money demand function. Moreover, when the money demand function was estimated using dynamic OLS, the sign onditions of the coefficients of output and interest rates were found to be consistent with theoretical rationale, and statistical significance was confirmed when moneysupply was represented by either M1 or M2. Consequently, though India’s central bank presently uses M3 as an indicator of future price movements, it is thought appropriate to focus on M1 or M2, rather than M3, in managing monetary policy.
机译:本文使用月度数据对1976年至2007年期间印度的货币需求函数进行实证分析,并使用年度数据对1976年至2007年期间的印度货币需求函数进行分析。协整检验结果表明,当货币供应量由M1和M2表示时,在实际货币余额,利率和产出中检测到协整向量。相反,发现当货币供应量由M3表示时,货币需求函数中没有长期的均衡关系。此外,当使用动态OLS估计货币需求函数时,发现产出和利率系数的符号条件与理论原理一致,并且当货币供应量以M1或M2表示时,具有统计意义。因此,尽管印度中央银行目前将M3用作未来价格走势的指标,但在管理货币政策时应将重点放在M1或M2而非M3上。

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