Probabilistic Forecasting Method of Metro Station Environment Based on Autoregressive LSTM Network

摘要

With the increasing number of metros, the comfort and safety of crew and passengers in metro stations have been paid great attention. The environment forecasting has become very important for decision-making. The outputs of the traditional point prediction methods are some exact values in the future. However, it might be closer to the real conditions that the predicted variables are given a probability range with a different confidence rather than exact values. This paper proposes a probabilistic forecasting method of metro station environment based on autoregressive Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network. It has a good performance to quantify the uncertainty of environment trend in a metro station. Seven-day field tests were carried out to obtain the measured data of 7 internal environmental parameters in a metro station and 8 external environment parameters. In order to ensure the prediction performance, the random forest algorithm is used to select the input variables for the proposed probabilistic forecasting method. The selected input variables and the previous predicted values are as the input variables to build the probabilistic forecasting model. The proposed method can realize to predict the probabilistic distribution of internal environmental parameters in a metro station. This work may contribute to prevent emergency events and regulate environment control system reasonably.