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Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017

机译:1960年至2017年全球人口衰老的时空演变

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摘要

Abstract Background Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide. Methods All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions. Results Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing—Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK—whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113–3.214), 3.071 (3.018–3.122), 2.951 (2.903–3.001), 2.932 (2.880–2.984) and 2.917 (2.869–2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased. Conclusions The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas.
机译:摘要背景人口老化是一项日益严重的全球问题。这一直在构成公共卫生政策和医疗资源分配的挑战,在全球不同地区有各种各样的人口老龄化。方法从世界银行开放数据的健康数据中获得所有数据。定量线性回归用于巧妙地测量全球衰老率和老化人口的常见变异趋势和强度。贝叶斯时空层次结构模型(BSTHM)用于评估全球195个国家和地区老龄化率和老龄化人口的详细空间时间演变。结果六大洲年龄(65及以上)的年增长率(65及以上)发生:欧洲(0.1532%),大洋洲(0.0873%),亚洲(0.0834%),南美(0.0723%),北美(0.0673%)和非洲(0.0069%)。全球衰老率的变异系数从1960年的0.54增加到2017年的0.69.全球衰老率和老龄化人口在此期间增加,与其量率正面相关。欧洲的大多数国家(37/39)属于最高级别的老化率,包括最大程度的老化瑞典,德国,奥地利,比利时和英国 - 其空间相对风险的国家是3.180 (3.113-3.214),3.071(3.018-3.122),2.951(2.903-3.001),2.932(2.880-2.984)和2.917(2.869-2.967)。全球范围内的44个低位老化区域主要分布在非洲(26个地区)和亚洲(15个地区)经历了衰老率的趋势。 195个地区老龄化人口的当地趋势增加。结论全球人口老龄化的分化变得越来越严重。在全球范围内,所有195个地区都表现出绝对术语的当地衰老趋势越来越大,尽管有44个低衰老的地区,经历了衰老率的局部趋势降低。统计结果可能为在各国或地区制定公共卫生政策的一些基线参考,特别是在欠发达地区。

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