Streamflow Decline in the Yellow River along with Socioeconomic Development: Past and Future

摘要

Human society and ecosystems worldwide are increasinAagly threatened by water shortages. Despite numerous studies of climatic impacts on water availability, little is known about the influences of socioeconomic development on streamflow and water sustainability. Here, we show that the streamflow from the Yellow River to the sea has decreased by more than 80% in total over the last 60 years due to increased water consumption by agricultural, industrial and urban developments (76% of the streamflow decrease, similarly hereinafter), decreased precipitation (13%), reservoir construction (6%) and revegetation (5%). We predict that if the past trends in streamflow will continue, year-round dry-up in the lower Yellow River will commence in the late 2020s or early 2030s, unless effective countermeasures such as water diversion from the Yangtze River are taken. These results suggest that streamflow in semiarid basins is highly vulnerable to human impacts and that streamflow decline would in turn hinder further socioeconomic development and endanger river-sea ecosystems.