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The profitability of trading rules in stock markets: evidence from GCC countries

机译:股票市场交易规则的盈利性:海湾合作委员会国家的证据

摘要

The thesis provides empirical evidence on weak-form efficiency in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. To communicate the academic concepts to the practitioners’ intuition, we utilise several trading rules to test weak-form efficiency in these markets. The trading rules are formulated on the basis of widely used technical indicators, namely moving average oscillator and trading-range break. Furthermore, we use several econometric estimation techniques to investigate the presence of seasonal effects in these markets (specifically the weekend, the holiday, the turn-of-the-month, and the month-of-the-year effects). Once a seasonal effect is found to be statistically significant, trading rules designed on the basis of these seasonal effects are evaluated. In addition, the role played by fundamentalists and technicians in the price-formation process is also examined. The empirical results reveal that trading rules generally outperform the passive buy-and-hold trading strategy. However, the performance of the trading rules appears to be highly temporal and largely diminishes when transaction costs are taken into consideration. Both fundamentalists and technicians have a role to play in price determination, although the technicians appear to be the more influential.
机译:本文提供了海湾合作委员会(GCC)股票市场中弱形式效率的经验证据。与从业者交流学术观念凭直觉,我们利用几种交易规则来测试这些市场中弱形态的效率。交易规则是根据广泛使用的技术指标制定的,即移动平均震荡指标和交易区间突破。此外,我们使用多种计量经济学的估算技术来调查这些市场中季节性影响的存在(特别是周末,假日,月度和年度影响)。一旦发现季节性影响具有统计学意义,便会评估基于这些季节性影响设计的交易规则。此外,还研究了原教旨主义者和技术人员在价格形成过程中所扮演的角色。实证结果表明,交易规则通常优于被动的买入并持有交易策略。但是,交易规则的执行似乎是暂时的,并且在考虑交易成本时会大大降低。尽管技术人员似乎更有影响力,但原教旨主义者和技术人员在价格确定中都可以发挥作用。

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    Al-Nassar N;

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  • 年度 2014
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