Essays on macroeconometric modelling:housing and financial markets in the light of inflation targeting monetary policy. Evidence from the United Kingdom

摘要

The aim of this study is to present four essays related to the macroeconometric modelling of specific relations within the economy of the United Kingdom for the period 1992-2012. The focal point of these essays is the link between inflation targeting monetary policy decision making and housing or financial prices. In particular, we investigate whether traditional channels of monetary policy are still in effect under the adopted monetary policy regime. At the same time, findings associated with the specific relation between both asset markets or with the various working assumptions which facilitate our investigation are also reported.The specific econometric methods employed include the development of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR), Markov regime-switching, as well as, multivariate generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (MGARCH) models. The formulation of these models is predicated upon the selection of appropriate approximations for all financial and macroeconomic indicators of interest.The main findings of the first essay suggest that under the inflation targeting monetary policy regime, innovations in the monetary policy instrument have no direct effect on the stock market as previously suggested by traditional channels of monetary policy. The said innovations though, appear to have a significant negative impact on the housing market. Furthermore, variation in the stock market can be explained by innovations in the housing market. Turning to the second essay, prominent among our results is the fact that innovations in fiscal policy have a significantly negative effect on the stock market (direct impact). In addition, the effects of monetary policy on the stock market also become negative (indirect impact). According to the third essay when both the stock and the housing market are in a highly volatile regime, then contractionary monetary policy pushes both markets to remain at that regime. Finally, the main outcome from the fourth essay is that the time-varying correlation between monetary policy and housing or financial prices becomes stronger during turbulent times.Overall, our findings suggest that within an inflation targeting monetary policy regime the effects of monetary policy decisions on the stock market strongly depend on the broader economic conditions. By contrast, traditional monetary policy channels with respect to the housing market appear to be in effect; however, broader economic conditions have a key role to play in this case as well.