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Sequential Importance Sampling for Online Bayesian Changepoint Detection

机译:在线贝叶斯变换点检测的序贯重要性抽样

摘要

Online detection of abrupt changes in the parameters of a generative model for a time series is useful when modelling data in areas of application such as finance, robotics, and biometrics. We present an algorithm based on Sequential Importance Sampling which allows this problem to be solved in an online setting without relying on conjugate priors. Our results are exact and unbiased as we avoid using posterior approximations, and only rely on Monte Carlo integration when computing predictive probabilities. We apply the proposed algorithm to three example data sets. In two of the examples we compare our results to previously published analyses which used conjugate priors. In the third example we demonstrate an application where conjugate priors are not available. Avoiding conjugate priors allows a wider range of models to be considered with Bayesian changepoint detection, and additionally allows the use of arbitrary informative priors to quantify the uncertainty more flexibly.
机译:当在金融,机器人和生物识别等应用领域中对数据进行建模时,对于时间序列的生成模型的参数进行在线突变的在线检测非常有用。我们提出了一种基于顺序重要性采样的算法,该算法允许在不依赖共轭先验的情况下在线解决该问题。我们的结果准确无偏,因为我们避免使用后验近似,而在计算预测概率时仅依赖于蒙特卡洛积分。我们将提出的算法应用于三个示例数据集。在两个示例中,我们将我们的结果与使用共轭先验的先前发表的分析进行比较。在第三个示例中,我们演示了共轭先验不可用的应用。避免使用共轭先验,可以使用贝叶斯变化点检测来考虑更广泛的模型,并且还允许使用任意信息先验来更灵活地量化不确定性。

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