Application of New Accident Analysis Methodologies. Volume 3. TheoreticalDevelopment

摘要

One of the most serious problems in accident analysis is the regression-to-the-mean bias which occurs due to the non-random site selection process in safety measure evaluation studies. The study presents a new empirical Bayes method which adjusts for regression-to-the-mean bias. Three typical applications in accident analysis are considered for regression-to-the-mean bias, namely: the evaluation of safety treatments; the identification of high hazard locations; and the assimilation of information from multiple safety measure studies (meta-analysis). A computer program was developed to execute these analyses as a part of the study. The manuscript describes the Empirical Bayes Estimation of Safety and Transportation (EBEST) methodology and presents examples of how the method works for each of the three accident analysis applications. Volume III, contains the theoretical development of the procedure.