Forecasting Freight Traffic between the U.S. and Mexico

摘要

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a 1992 agreement negotiated bythe U.S., Canada, and Mexico, has prompted new interest in freight demand forecasting. With respect to those goods moving between the U.S. and Mexico, most are transported by highway through Texas, California, New Mexico, and Arizona. Freight demand forecasting can assist transportation professionals in planning for the infrastructure maintenance required to avoid serious disruptions to trade flows across the border. The objective of this research is to use publicly available data to develop predictive models for transport mode and Mexican destination decisions for shipments from various U.S. regions. Aggregate logit models have been calibrated for three commodities: machinery, electronics, and automobiles. A profile of Mexico and its industries is presented along with a review of past efforts in freight demand forecasting. The data set of aggregate shipments used in the model estimation is comprised of origin, destination, commodity type, mode of transport across the border, and value. Destination attributes, such as population, employment, number of firms in the industry, and number of shippers and warehouses, are also included. Based on the results of this research, origin and commodity-specific models may be used as a basis for future studies developing forecasting tools that include additional modes and commodities at a more disaggregate level.