Development of Risk-Based Decision Methodology for Facility Design.

摘要

This report develops a methodology for CDOT to use in the risk analysis of various types of facilities and provides illustrative examples for the use of the proposed framework. An overview of the current practices and applications to illustrate the context from which the proposed methodology has been developed is presented first. Next, the report introduces the proposed methodology for CDOT. In order to understand how the framework operates in practice, two illustrative examples are presented. The first example demonstrates the framework through the context of allocating resources for the operation and maintenance of a portfolio of signalized mast arms. Two risk assessment methods are introduced through the first example, and it is shown that mast arms could benefit from varied inspection frequencies based on current structural defects present. The second illustrative example uses the framework in the context of making design decisions with regard to seismic hazard in Colorado. A quantitative risk assessment method is introduced, and the illustration suggests that seismic hazard is not a controlling hazard in Colorado. Implementation Through the literature review and presented examples, CDOT is equipped with the resources and information necessary to implement a risk-based methodology in decision-making across its organization. In the near term, the report recommends the following action items for CDOT: 1.) Implementation of a varied mast arm inspection routine based on structural state 2.) Modification of the mast arm inspection records database to make information amenable to data-mining for risk assessment 3.) Adoption of the proposed common vocabulary and framework to discuss risk and address issues that face the organization