Future of Housing in the United States: An Econometric Model and Long-Term Predictions for the 2000 RPA Timber Assessment

摘要

This paper reports a structural model of the U.S. housing sector that was used to generate the key housing assumptions used in the 2000 Resources Planning Act timber assessment: number of households, improvement expenditure, and square footage of new residential construction by unit type. Assuming average annual population growth of 0.77 percent and real income growth of 1.99 percent, the model predicts 1.30 percent average annual growth in housing investment, compared to 2.04 percent annual growth since 1952. The allocation between new construction and home improvement remains fairly constant at about 56 percent and 44 percent, respectively. Scenario analysis was used to test sensitivity of the predictions to key macroeconomic assumptions.