Measuring the Deterrent Effect of Enforcement Operations on Drug Smuggling, 1991-1999.

摘要

This study takes a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach to studying the deterrent effect of drug enforcement operations on cocaine trafficking. For the purposes of this study, a drug enforcement operation has a deterrent effect if drug smugglers are displaced from a previously preferred route/method into a less desirable smuggling route/method, thereby increasing their risk of being caught and other costs associated with smuggling (e.g., transportation fees). The increased costs presumably will be passed on to consumers. The qualitative portion of the study is based on the expectation that interviewing smugglers can tell us much about what factors especially drug enforcement affect their decision making process. Using statistical analysis we then show how specific counterdrug operations undertaken between 1991 to 1999 impacted cocaine prices (both retail and wholesale) and trafficker behavior. This analysis provides the basis for an on-going replicable effort aimed at measuring the impact of drug enforcement operations on the cocaine smuggling system.