Long-Term Oil and Gas Structure Installation and Removal Forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: A Decision- and Resource-Based Approach

摘要

The platform forecasting procedures employed by the Resource Evaluation Analysis (REA) Unit of the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) is evaluated and quantified in a formal analytic framework. The assumptions employed in the REA/MMS methodology, the uncertainty associated with the modeling procedures, and the primary consequences of the assumption set are examined. Ten recommendations are suggested to clarify and maintain the consistency of the approach, and an alternative model is described which incorporates the suggestions for improvement. The analytic framework of the alternative model is presented and compared to the REA/MMS procedure. A long-term infrastructure forecast in the Gulf of Mexico is developed in a disaggregated decision- and resource-based environment. Models for the installation and removal rates of structures are performed across five water depth categories for the Western and Central Gulf of Mexico planning areas for structures grouped according to a major and nonmajor classification.