Strategic Warning: If Surprise Is Inevitable, What Role for Analysis. The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Occasional Papers. Volume 2, Number 1.

摘要

We live in what Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has called 'a world defined by surprise and uncertainty.' In this timely and thoughtful paper, first circulated in draft at a workshop sponsored by the DI's Global Futures Partnership in May 2002, Kent Center Research Scholar Jack Davis reminds us that warning is an analytic discipline and that strategic warning, in particular, is a unique analytic challenge that demands continued reassessment and improvement. Indeed, DI guidance on 'Best Warning Practices' stresses the Directorate's longstanding conviction that 'every analyst is a warning analyst' and that 'sound analytic tradecraft is the best assurance of good warning analysis.'