Estimation, Validation, and Forecasts of Regional Commercial Marine Vessel Inventories:Final rept

摘要

This report presents results of a project to develop and deliver commercial marine emissions inventories for cargo traffic in shipping lanes serving U.S. continental coastlines. A regional scale methodology consistent with port-based inventory methods was applied for estimating commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions in coastal waters. Geographically resolved inventories were produced for a 2002 baseline year (Task 1). Several port-based inventories were evaluated to validate the regional inventory (Task 2). Using average growth trends describing trade and energy requirements for North American cargo and passenger vessels, an unconstrained forecast was developed to describe a business as usual (BAU) scenario without sulfur controls (Task 3), and a with-SECA scenario assuming IMO-compliant reductions in fuel sulfur to 1.5% by weight for all activity within the Exclusive Economic Zone (200 nautical miles) of North American nations (Task 4). This work contributes to better regional inventories of commercial marine emissions for North America that supports the California Air Resources Board (ARB), Commission for Environmental Cooperation of North America (CEC), western regional states, United States federal, and multinational efforts to quantify and evaluate potential air pollution impacts from shipping in U.S, Canadian, and Mexican coastal waters.