Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, May 26, 2011

摘要

Fiscal 2011 agricultural exports are forecast at a record $137 billion, up $1.5 billion from the February forecast and 26 percent ($28.3 billion) above 2010. Oilseeds are unchanged as higher prices offset lower volumes. Grain exports are forecast down on lower volume due to increased competition for wheat. Cotton exports are forecast up slightly on strong second quarter shipments. Higher prices and strong Asian demand support increased pork and beef exports. Dairy products and animal by-products are also up. The forecast for China is raised $1 billion to a record $21 billion on strong soybean and cotton exports. The forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa are raised due to strong grain shipments, while South Korea is up on larger meat shipments. Fiscal 2011 imports are forecast up $5 billion from the February forecast to a record $93 billion. Both volume and unit values are up year-to-date, indicating strong import demand. The largest increases are for canola oil, olive oil, and palm kernel oil. U.S. import demand is relatively high for products from Southeast Asia, South Asia, and North Africa. Compared with 2010, import values have grown more than 30 percent from these regions, reflecting strong demand for tropical oils, coffee, rubber, sugar, and tree nuts. Higher unit values for sugar, coffee, cocoa, and rubber reflect source country supply problems, smaller stocks, or greater global demand. With imports expected to rise faster than exports, the trade surplus drops to $44 billion, down $3.5 billion from the February forecast, but still well above the 2008 record.