Safeguards Systems Concepts for Nuclear Material Transportation.

摘要

The report describes the development of system concepts for the safeguarding of special strategic nuclear materials (SNM) against malevolent adversary action during the interfacility transport of the SNM. The methodology used includes techniques for defining,classifying,and analyzing adversary action sequences;defining safeguards system components;assessing the vulnerability of various safeguards systems and their component parts to the potential adversary action sequences,and conceptualizing system design requirements. The method of analysis is based primarily on a comparison of adversary actions with safeguards measures,to estimate vulnerability. Because of the paucity of the data available for assessing vulnerability,the Delphi approach was used to generate data:values were estimated in a structured exercise by a panel of experts in the safeguards and terrorist fields. It is concluded that the probability of successful attack against a truck/escort convoy manned by well-trained,well-armed personnel is low enough to discourage all but the strongest adversaries. Secrecy of operations and careful screening of personnel are very important. No reliance should be placed on current capabilities of local law enforcement agencies. The recommendation of the study is the use of road transport in the near future and air transport at a later time when the number of shipments reaches a level to justify it,and when present safety problems are resolved.