Development of Improved Methods for Predicting Air Quality Levels in the South Coast Air Basin.

摘要

Improved methods to predict oxidant,sulfate and sulfur dioxide levels in the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) were developed. The new algorithms developed provide substantially improved capability for same-day predictions and to a lesser degree day-in-advance predictions. Additional findings of the study were: (1) the statistical relationship between meteorology and pollutant concentrations degrade rapidly as the lead-time increases,such that historical data are ineffective for 30-hour predictions; (2) the use of prognostic charts from numerical computer models have improved day-in-advance prediction methods;and (3) the inclusion of emission factors does not appreciably improve prediction accuracies over those obtained from meteorological data alone.