Double Vision in the Rental Housing Market, and a Prescription for Correcting It

摘要

Two prevalent contrasting views of the housing rental market are described, and a prescription for developing a single view of the rental market is offered. Trends in the profitability of rental housing and in the demand for rental housing combine to determine market conditions. There is both a crisis and a business - as - usual view of the rental market. The crisis view sees it collapsing, while the business - as - usual view sees it growing at a slower but acceptable pace. The evidence of market collapse includes a precipitous decline in construction starts, spreading condominium conversion, and historic lows in the vacancy rates. The business - as - usual view, on the other hand, sees starts at historically normal levels, perceives no problem for the housing market in condominium conversion, and points to the rising quality of rental housing. These conflicting views of rental market conditions have produced confusion and conflicting actions in governments. Municipal governments debate rent controls and restrictions on condominium conversions, while Federal initiatives have aimed at making rental housing more profitable to stimulate its expansion. A research agenda which would develop the facts needed for policy development should include (1) tracing the specific impacts of the major changes in the past decade on developers, landlords, and households; (2) integrating the analyses of the three market participants into a unified market model; and (3) applying the model to project market trends in the 1980's and evaluate government policies for the 1980's. Footnotes and three references are provided.