DAR(3)E-1 Evaluation: Assessment of Weather Forecasts Made Using the DAR(3)E-1 Workstation

摘要

The evaluation of the Denver AWIPS-90 Risk Reduction and Requirements Evaluation, Part I (DAR3E-I) system compares the forecast accuracy of severe storm warnings, probability of precipitation (POP), and maximum and minimum temperature forecasts issued before and after the system was installed in the Denver National Weather Service Office (WSFO) in September, 1986. Twenty years of POP and temperature forecasts for Denver and Grand Junction, Colorado are compared to those forecasts issued in the year following installation, whereas severe storm warnings issued by the Denver WSFO for the Colorado Front-Range were evaluated for a three- and five-year period. For the evaluation, tornado warnings showed the most improvement in the false alarm ratio (FAR). Increased lead time and the decreased size of the warning area indicate a marked potential for improved service to the public. Severe thunderstorm warnings also showed similar, but not as noticeable improvements. The probability of detection (POD) scores declined for both tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. The precipitation forecasts show little change in skill and reliability, while there is suggested improvement in the cool- and warm-season 0-12 hour temperature forecasts after the installation of DAR3E-I.