Development of Fault Parameters for Use in Risk Assessment Modeling in the Pasco Basin, Columbia Plateau, South Central Washington: A Preliminary Study

摘要

Preliminary data on strain rate, seismicity, and estimated earthquake source parameters suggest limitations on the extent of postulated faulting and its impact on a nuclear waste repository in Columbia River basalt. Structural relief of dated basalt flows, attitude of Pliocene sediments, geodetic surveys, size and distribution of earthquakes, and focal mechanism solutions indicate that deformation of basalt under north-south compression was under way in the Miocene and has continued on existing structures at an average rate of much less than 1 mm/yr in the Pasco Basin. Lengths and displacements of mapped faults suggest limits on the postulated fault that could intersect a repository and produce an earthquake of about magnitude 6.5. Using a credible earthquake permits calculation of preliminary source parameters for risk assessment modeling during a single episode of slip on the postulated new fault and indicates displacement of less than or equal to 1, m on a steeply dipping fault of less than or equal to 50 km length could occur. Preliminary source parameter calculations suggest that displacements of less than or equal to 2 cm may occur during microearthquakes in swarms. The area of fault rupture may be tens of square meters up to a few square kilometers, suggesting slip on joints. Seismic moments for postulated earthquakes in the interconnecting fault and microearthquake scenarios compare favorably with reported values for similar-sized earthquakes in different media and suggest that the estimated fault parameters are reasonable until an adequate tectonic model has been developed. (ERA citation 07:042567)