User's Guide for Loss of Load Probability Program. Volume 2. Department of Energy Office of Emergency Preparedness

摘要

Purpose of this model is to compute the probability that utility load will exceed capacity, given a specific set of generators and a specific hourly load pattern for an electric power utility in the US. The generation (or capacity) model is developed by combining each generator unit-by-unit and stored in the form of a probability vector with the associated generation level implied by the position of the entry in the vector. Each new generating unit is represented by its own probability vector and is then added into the system configuration by convolving this probability vector with the current system probability vector to yield the new system probability vector. The utility load model, represented by 168 hourly demand loads, is read in and stored at the beginning of the program. Load growth can then be simulated by scaling up all the load values by the ratio of the desired peak load to the peak load of the stored model. The loss of load probability can then be computed using the Calabrese method. (ERA citation 11:013422)