On the Period-Amplitude and Amplitude-Period Relationships

摘要

Examined are Period-Amplitude and Amplitude-Period relationships based on the cyclic behavior of the 12-month moving averages of monthly mean sunspot numbers for cycles 0.23, both in terms of Fisher's exact tests for 2x2 contingency tables and linear regression analyses. Concerning the Period-Amplitude relationship (same cycle), because cycle 23's maximum amplitude is known to be 120.8, the inferred regressions (90-percent prediction intervals) suggest that its period will be 131 /- 24 months (using all cycles) or 131 /- 18 months (ignoring cycles 2 and 4, which have the extremes of period, 108 and 164 months, respectively). Because cycle 23 has already persisted for 142 months (May 1996 through February 2008), based on the latter prediction, it should end before September 2008. Concerning the Amplitude-Period relationship (following cycle maximum amplitude versus preceding cycle period), because cycle 23's period is known to be at least 142 months, the inferred regressions (90-percent prediction intervals) suggest that cycle 24's maximum amplitude will be about less than or equal to 96.1 /- 55.0 (using all cycle pairs) or less than or equal to 91.0 /- 36.7 (ignoring statistical outlier cycle pairs). Hence, cycle 24's maximum amplitude is expected to be less than 151, perhaps even less than 128, unless cycle pair 23/24 proves to be a statistical outlier.