The Fermi paradox: An approach based on percolation theory

摘要

If even a very small fraction of the hundred billion stars in the galaxy are home to technological civilizations which colonize over interstellar distances, the entire galaxy could be completely colonized in a few million years. The absence of such extraterrestrial civilizations visiting Earth is the Fermi paradox. A model for interstellar colonization is proposed using the assumption that there is a maximum distance over which direct interstellar colonization is feasible. Due to the time lag involved in interstellar communications, it is assumed that an interstellar colony will rapidly develop a culture independent of the civilization that originally settled it. Any given colony will have a probability P of developing a colonizing civilization, and a probability (1-P) that it will develop a non-colonizing civilization. These assumptions lead to the colonization of the galaxy occuring as a percolation problem. In a percolation problem, there will be a critical value of percolation probability, P(sub c). For P less than P(sub c), colonization will always terminate after a finite number of colonies. Growth will occur in 'clusters', with the outside of each cluster consisting of non-colonizing civilizations. For P greater than P(sub c), small uncolonized voids will exist, bounded by non-colonizing civilizations. For P approximately = to P(sub c), arbitrarily large filled regions exist, and also arbitrarily large empty regions.