Risk assessment of soil-based exposures to plutonium at experimental sites located on the Nevada Test Site and adjoining areas

摘要

In the late 1950s and early 1960s, a series of tests was conducted at or near the Nevada Test Site to study issues involving plutonium-bearing devices. These tests resulted in the dispersal of about 5 TBq of (sup 239,240)Pu on the surficial soils at the test locations. Access to the sites is strictly controlled; therefore, it does not constitute a threat to human health at the present time. However, because the residual (sup 239) Pu decays slowly (half-life of 24,110 y), the sites could indeed represent a long-term hazard if they are not remediated and if institutional controls are lost. To investigate the magnitude of the potential health risks for this no-remediation case, we defined three basic exposure scenarios that could bring individuals in contact with (sup 239,240)Pu at the sites: (1) a resident living in a subdivision located at a test site, (2) a resident farmer, and (3) a worker at a commercial facility. Our screening analyses indicated that doses to organs are dominated by the intemal deposition of Pu via the inhalation pathway, and thus our risk assessment focused on those factors that affect inhalation exposures and associated doses, including inhalation rates, activity patterns, tenure at a residence or occupation, indoor/outdoor air relationships, and resuspension outdoors. Cancer risks were calculated as a function of lifetime cumulative doses to the key target organs (i.e., bone surface, liver, and lungs) and risk factors for those organs. Uncertainties in the predicted cancer risks were analyzed using Monte-Carlo simulations of the probability distributions used to represent assessment parameters. The principal sources of uncertainty in the estimated risks were population mobility, the relationship between indoor and outdoor contaminant levels, and the dose and risk factors for bone, liver, and lung.