Hazards to people and aircraft from flight test debris generated at high altitudes

摘要

One of the most important aspects of preparing for a rocket-boosted flight test is conducting a mission hazards analysis to quantify the risks associated with the test. These results must be presented to the organization holding the flight safety responsibility for the test and must be of sufficient quantitative detail and thoroughness to show that the test can be conducted within the specified safety guidelines. One of the steps in the flight safety analysis methodology is the generation of statistical debris density data, which is then combined with demographic data to yield an upper bound on the casualty expectation. The most conservative approach to managing the hazards associated with flight-test debris is to contain all debris within a controlled area and keep all nonessential personnel out of that area. However, for many tests this approach is much too conservative. A more realistic approach, especially when large numbers of small fragments are generated, is to reduce the size of the hazard area by discarding those debris fragments that are non-hazardous. The quantification of the boundary between hazardous and non-hazardous debris fragments is the subject of this report. Two hazards of flight-test debris are address here: hazards to people exposed on the ground and hazards to aircraft in flight. A survey was conducted of the literature and of experts in the field of debris effects. The survey results are presented here and recommendations made regarding the minimum energy levels and minimum particle size that need be considered in a flight safety analysis.