China's macro economic trends and power industry structure

摘要

Since China adopted an open door policy in 1978, its economy has grown rapidly. Between 1980 and 1993, China's real GNP growth averaged 9.4 percent per year. Economists at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecast that GNP will increase by 11.5 percent in 1994. During the rest of the decade, the Chinese government plans to reduce its annual GNP growth rate to 8-9 percent. During the 2001-2010 period, the economic growth rate is projected to decline to 6.5 percent per year. Table 1 compares China's economic growth to other Asia-Pacific Economies, and includes projections to 2010. During the 1980s, China's GDP growth rate was only second to that of South Korea. In the 1990's, China is projected to have the highest economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region. China's rapid economic growth is due to dramatic increases in the effective labor supply and effective capital stock. For the remainder of the 1990s, the effective labor supply should continue to increase rapidly because: (1) Chinese state enterprises are over-staffed and labor system reforms will move millions of these workers into more productive activities; (2) reforms in the wage system will provide increased incentives to work harder; (3) relaxation of migration controls from rural to urban areas will cause nominal labor in the industrial sector to accelerate; (4) differentials in personal income will increase and develop peer pressure on workers to work harder and earn more money; and (5) at China's low personal income level, Chinese people are willing to trade leisure for more income as wages increase.