Data collection and analysis in support of risk assessment for hydroelectric stations

摘要

This project is to provide the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers with a risk analysis that evaluates the non-routine closure of water flow through the turbines of powerhouses along the Columbia and Snake Rivers. The project is divided into four phases. Phase 1 efforts collected and analyzed relevant plant failure data for hydroelectric generating stations in the United States and Canada. Results from the Phase 1 efforts will be used to assess the risk (probability times consequences) associated with non-routine shut down of hydroelectric stations, which will be performed in the remaining phases of the project. Results of this project may be used to provide policy recommendations regarding operation and maintenance of hydroelectric stations. The methodology used to complete the Phase 1 of the project is composed of data collection and analysis activities. Data collection included performing site visits, conducting a data survey of hydroelectric stations, conducting an expert panel workshop, and reviewing and tabulating failure data from generic sources. Data analysis included estimating failure rates obtained from the survey data, expert judgment elicitation process, generic data, and combining these failure rates to produce final failure rate parameters. This paper summarizes the data collection analysis, results and discussions for the Phase 1 efforts.