Prognostic Modeling of Long-Range Atmospheric Pollutant Transport for ETEX

摘要

Atmospheric models used in emergency response applications must be able to include the effects of the evolving synoptic weather systems in a timely manner. The European Tracer EXperiment (ETEX), conducted in October and November 1994, is designed to evaluate the performance of such models. In addition to the tracer experiments, concurrent real-time modeling exercises were conducted by some 24 organizations world-wide, including the Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) of the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site. This paper describes the forecast results obtained by atmospheric modelers at SRTC in applying an advanced three-dimensional modeling system to forecast tracer transport and diffusion during ETEX. Forecast results from the first of two tracer experiments are presented. Surface and sounding data are available from the time periods of the releases. This paper will focus on the evaluation of the forecasts in light of the surface wind data, and relate the forecast evaluations to the differences in the tracer gas dispersion predicted using these forecasts.