Baseline Evaluation of Thin-Film Amorphous Silicon, Copper Indium Diselenide, and211 Cadmium Telluride for the 21st Century: Preprint

摘要

This paper examines three thin-film PV technologies: amorphous silicon, cadmium211u001etelluride, and copper indium selenide. The purpose is to: (1) assess their status 211u001eand potential; (2) provide an improved set of criteria for comparing these 211u001eexisting thin films against any new PV technological alternatives, and examining 211u001ethe longer-term (c. 2050) potential of thin films to meet cost goals that would 211u001ebe competitive with conventional sources of energy without any added value from 211u001ethe substantial environmental advantages of PV. Among the conclusions are: (1) 211u001etoday's thin films have substantial economic potential, (2) any new approach to 211u001ePV should be examined against the substantial achievements and potential of 211u001etoday's thin films, (3) the science and technology base of today's thin films 211u001eneeds substantial strengthening, (4) some need for alternative technologies 211u001eexists, especially as the future PV marketplace expands beyond about 30 GW of 211u001eannual production.