New Paradigms in Simulating the Prediction, Intervention and Control ofInfections Diseases

摘要

Mathematical models based on the underlying transmission mechanisms of thedisease can help the medical/scientific community understand and anticipate the spread of an epidemic and resistant strains in different populations and evaluate the potential effectiveness of different approaches for bringing an epidemic under control. Even more important than the successes with these specific diseases has been the development of frameworks and concepts for understanding epidemiology. Modeling can reduce the uncertainty of the estimates of disease prevalence and aid in the development of scientific understanding of the mechanisms of the disease and of the epidemic. It can also estimate the benefits and the costs of projected, interventions and project the requirements that an epidemic will place on the health care system. Thus, the modeling techniques can join with biological, epidemiological, behavioral, and social science studies to produce better projections and better understanding of the epidemic. The new models and analysis in this research has lead to advances that will help us to better understand the spread of infectious diseases, including influenza, hepatitis, HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases, and to be able to estimate and subsequently predict the impact of control measures on their spread.