FY 2000 Buildings Energy Savings Estimates Under Uncertainty: Developing Approaches for Incorporating Risk into Buildings Program Energy Efficiency Estimates

摘要

This report is one of two that re-examines the forecasted impact of individual programs currently within the Buildings Technology Program (BT) and the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) that appeared in the FY2000 Presidential Budget request. This report develops potential methods for allowing inherent risk to be captured in the program benefits analysis. Note that the FY2000 budget request was originally analyzed under the former Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), where BT and WIP were previously combined. Throughout the document, reference will be made to the predecessor of the BT and WIP programs, BTS, as FY2000 reflected that organization. A companion report outlines the effects of re-estimating the FY 2000 budget request based on overlaying program data from subsequent years, essentially revised out-year forecasts. That report shows that year-to-year long-term projections of primary energy savings can vary widely as models improve and programs change. Those point estimates are not influenced by uncertainty or risk. This report develops potential methods for allowing inherent risk to affect the benefits analysis via Monte Carlo simulation.