Survey and Evaluation of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth and Technical Change with Special Emphasis on Institutional R and D.

摘要

After summarizing previous attempts to measure the contribution of technical change to economic growth in terms of investment,experience, R and D,and energy,the R and D theory of factor productivity growth is tested against the other three theories by determining the standard errors of estimate and applying the S-test to each pair of hypotheses. The R and D theory explains factor productivity growth in the U.S. private nonfinancial sector over the period 1959-75marginally better than other theories tested. Assuming the validity of the relationship between R and D expenditures and factor productivity,the recent decline in R and D spending,if allowed to continue,will cut factor productivity growth roughly in half from its post-war average. To restore factor productivity growth to its historical rate of about 2%/year over the next decade would require increasing R and D spending 10%/year. 76references. (ERA citation 02:059896)