Federal Coal Leasing and 1985 and 1990 Regional Coal Production Forecasts

摘要

The future consumption of coal will depend on numerous market interactions, including public policy regarding energy conservation, air quality standards, production and transportation economics, and the normal demand shifters such as income, population and price of substitutes. The ability to supply coal, on the other hand, will be dependent on the reserve base, the economics of coal extraction and transportation, the leasing systems and schedules employed for the publicly owned portion of the resource, and the institutional constraints imposed by such factors as ownership patterns. Production of Western coal and the contribution that may be expected for Federal lands are major factors in formulating a Federal coal leasing program. Thus, anticipating the need for coal production data, Secretary Andrus requested that Secretary Schlesinger develop long-term regional coal production expectations consistent with the President's energy program. These forecasts are to be an integral part of the Department of the Interior's comprehensive review and redirection of the Federal coal leasing program. The forecasts are presented in tables representing three different scenarios. It can be seen that Federal coal is significant in all three of these scenarios, ranging from a low of 50 percent to 100 percent of the additional production to meet the projected production shortfalls. The assumptions and methodology involved are detailed. (ERA citation 04:025355)