Scenarios for exp 14 C Release to the Atmosphere by the World Nuclear Industry and Estimated Radiological Impacts

摘要

This paper presents an assessment of the radiation dose to the world population and the associated potential health effects from three scenarios of exp 14 C releases by the nuclear industry between 1975 and 2020. Measures of health impact are derived from source terms through the use of a multicompartment model of the global carbon cycle, dose-rate factors based on exp 14 C specific activity in various organs of man, and health-effect incidence factors recently recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The scenarios for worldwide exp 14 C releases considered are (1) a pessimistic scenario in which all the exp 14 C projected to be produced in fuel cycles is released, (2) an optimistic scenario that assumes a decontamination factor of 100 for fuel reprocessing, and (3) an intermediate scenario that simulates a phased improvement in effluent treatment technology at reprocessing plants. The estimates of cumulative potential health effects are based on integrations over infinite time. Comparisons with estimated effects from naturally formed exp 14 C are shown. (ERA citation 04:021835)