Economic Impacts of Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Sources

摘要

This paper develops an overall theory of the economic impacts of alternative energy developments, reviews existing literature on such impacts, and projects economic impacts of alternative energy development scenarios for California. Economic impacts include changes in aggregate employment, unemployment, real income, and real output. Changes in each of these measures are analyzed in circumstances that include incentives or mandates for increased energy conservation or use of renewable energy resources. Sudden cutoffs of conventional energy resources are excluded in this analysis. It is concluded that conservation/renewable energy systems are likely to bring significant short-term employment increases in California under almost any possible scenario. Real income impacts are much more uncertain. Significantly more research is needed on the impact on productivity and industrial location decisions. These impacts could overwhelm all other employment and income effects in the long run. The most important economic characteristics of energy systems are relative cost and degree of import substitution. Low-cost energy systems that substitute for imports would increase both real income and employment. (ERA citation 04:055064)