Japan: Estimates of Future Energy/GNP Relationships in Energy Use

摘要

In many ways Japan's recent economic experience is unparalleled in the OECD. Its GNP soared during the 1960s and early 1970s. In the 11 years following 1960, GNP tripled, and by 1976 had almost quadrupled. Japan's economic achievements are all the more impressive in light of the fact that, unlike Western European and North American OECD partners, Japan neither experienced an extended postwar baby boom nor allowed large numbers of foreign workers to enter the labor force. Rapid economic growth was accompanied by a parallel expansion of energy demand. Between 1960 and 1970, energy consumption more than doubled, and by 1976 had almost doubled again. Nothing in the analysis indicates that Japan's role as growth leader will be altered, even though economic expansion will be at a slower tempo. An early end is projected to the dramatic downward trend in fertility, with total fertility settling near 1.8. Productivity and GNP growth rates are also expected to lead the OECD, though a perceptible decline is anticipated. As a consequence of continued rapid economic expansion, Japan's energy consumption is projected to more than double between 1976 and 2000, a growth from 12.85 x 10 exp 15 Btu(quads) to 28.17 quads. At the same time GNP is projected to triple, accompanied by lowering of the Japanese energy/GNP ratio by 30%. Industrial and transportation sector energy efficiency gains are expected to lead the way, with residential and commercial sectorconsumption growing almost abreast with GNP. The delayed home appliance revolution is expected to offset much of the gains from slow population growth. On the other hand, the Japanese automobile population explosion is expected to proliferate new, more energy-efficient automobiles throughout the economy, rapidly raising overall fleet performance. A significant shift toward water transport of freight also improves the overall performance of the transport sector. (ERA citation 05:013683)