Risk Methodology for Geologic Disposal of Radioactive Waste: Small Sample Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models, with an Application to Risk Assessment

摘要

As modeling efforts expand to a broader spectrum of areas the amount of computer time required to exercise the corresponding computer codes has become quite costly. This costly process can be directly tied to the complexity of the modeling, which makes the relationships among the input variables not mathematically tractable. In this setting it is desired to perform sensitivity studies of the input-output relationships. A variety of situations require that decisions and judgments be made in the face of uncertainty, such as lack of knowledge about probability distributions associated with input variables, different hypothesized future conditions, or different strategies associated with a decision making process. In this paper a generalization of Latin hypercube sampling is given that allows these areas to be investigated without making additional computer runs.