Judgmental Estimate of Energy Consumption for the Next 40 Years (1980 to 2020)

摘要

Projections for US energy consumption for the next 40 years are presented. The projections assume that US citizens will respond interactively in their best interest when it becomes clear what that interest is - for example, that individuals on their own initiative will insulate their homes when heating fuels become more costly, especially if insulation becomes relatively cheaper or easier to finance. Otherwise, the projections resemble those used in other forecasts. The difference lies in the result. If one takes into account people and their likely responses, the forecast suggest that, by the year 2000, we should be able to reduce our present liquid fuel consumption by 50% and nearly eliminate oil imports. Five sectors were studied: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and nonfuel. (ERA citation 06:011088)